Celtics/Magic, Rockets/Warriors
NO. 2 BOSTON VS. NO. 7 ORLANDO
C: Kristaps Porziņģis – consistent dollops of KP will allow the Celtics so much, more free throws, increased deflections, a good pair of hands to finish off a busted play. Enough to overcome Cleveland after two rounds of hoop? Remains to be banged, but healthy Porziņģis is Boston's kindest card as it hounds consecutive championships.
F: Jayson Tatum – marks slightly off in the championship defense because it is really, really hard to do this, to win titles, in back-to-back seasons! Tatum's growing acumen as a heads-down pass-whipper is noted, fun to watch.
F: Jaylen Brown – a throbbing knee contusion which refuses to give ground is no way to start a postseason, but there absolutely is enough room for Brown to slowly, painfully return to form over a two-month playoff run. Even if he doesn't sit the first two home games against the barely-there Magic (Game 3 isn't until April 25). Like Tatum, also dishing more Drexler-esque passes these days.
G: Derrick White – 19 playoff games last season, 35 minutes an outing, 16 total turnovers. This guy.
PG: Jrue Holiday – fell off at age 34, down to 35 percent from deep, the rest of the statistical letdowns aren't as big a bother. Jrue's best application is a no-stats guy, passing into the assist, essentially playing a stretch power forward inside Boston's super-slow offense.
Al Horford is a veteran of 186 NBA playoff games, that's as many regular NBA games as Max Christie's played in his career.
Remember Jordan Bell, Rodrigue Beaubois? Sure you do, the internet fought over those guys for years. Al Horford's played more playoff games than Roddy Beaubois or Jordan Bell played NBA games. Al suited up against Sam Cassell in his first playoff game.
Sam Hauser led the league in turnover rate in 2024-25, only 23 blurps in 1541 minutes, career 42 percent three-point shooter ... Payton Pritchard's climb from a mini-scorer into a fully-formed baller is somehow an underspoken part of the Celtic sustain, but that might just be because I stopped going on Twitter. Just an expert shot-maker and he has to be, Pritchard took but 80 (non-technical) free throws in 80 games this season ... Torrey Craig is here for enviable forward depth and to ensure this paragraph isn't entirely made of white guys ... Luke Kornet finally decided to start jumping at the player he's guarding and it resulted in quantifiably great defensive season.
I love it when the Celtics bring Neemias Queta to just bleep things up for both teams. Queta works incessantly, so hard that he barely has the energy to hold onto the ball when he's rising up for uncontested dunks.
The Celtics lost in Orlando in December with Tatum out and also in early April, with Torrey Craig and Baylor Scheierman starting. Orlando lost by 27 in its lone visit to Massachusetts. Turns out I can still spell Massachusetts.
The Magic are not seriously limping, they run 10-deep on playoff-level NBA players, plus whatever your opinion of Cory Joseph is. If the Celtics splash from deep these games won't be close, but that's the case against any Celtic opponent if Boston bombs away, be they the Cavs, Thunder, 2017 Warriors. Anyone but the '86 Bears. Ask Tony Eason.
Orlando can win in Boston but probably won't. There is an advantage to create at the free throw line but I'm not convinced the Magic are ready to sweat the night away at the line, dropping two at time until the C's submit. Boston probably had these Magic pegged as an Eastern semifinal opponent at worst, they'll have plays, they'll be ready and inspired.
And it may not matter, Orlando has enough talent to drag this on. Not in a fun way, but it'll be on.
Maybe not in Game 1.
SUN, WED, FRI, SUN, TUE, THUR, SAT
Celtics in six
NO. 2 HOUSTON VS. NO. 7 GOLDEN STATE
C: Alperen Şengün – fifth-most shots blocked by an opponent this season. Averaged 19 and 10 and five with a steal. Turnover-prone in five regular season games against Golden State, only 47 percent from the floor.
F: Amen Thompson – lights-out defender who earns way more respect from the referees than he did 14 months ago. Shot the exact same amount of free throws per 100 (5.4) at the same percentage (68.4) as he did in his rookie season, but the form is noticeably better.
SG: Dillon Brooks – cranked into some of that Memphis-styled midrange game we derided so much upon his signing with Houston, it was noticeable and knocked a few ticks off his shooting percentage and, uh, I guess it didn't matter. My bad. My, bad.
G: Jalen Green – 21-4-4 on 42/35/81, no NBA player had his shot blocked more often. The Rockets were the fifth-worst team at gathering free throws and frankly I think I've found the problem.
PG: Fred VanVleet – never quite recovered from a slow start to the field (38/34/81 with 14 points and 5.6 assists in 35 minutes), and the Rockets can win without him, but they don't want to. If Houston creates a run befitting its second-seed status, FVV will be the reason why, even at a 51 percent True Shooting.
Stephen Curry enjoyed a 50 percent True Shooting against (36/30/80) in three games against the Rockets this season, Fred was there for every bit of it.
Tari Eason (12 and six boards and 1.7 steals in only 25 minutes a game) also worked quite well against Golden State in the regular season, though the hope is GSW's transition leakage will sop up with Jimmy Butler around ... Jabari Smith Jr. was in and out of the lineup and handled his injury-inspired demotion with ease, at least to us out here in the sticks. He averaged 35 minutes a game in four contests with Golden State this season, typical shit (14 and six boards a game, five blocks total, 37 percent from deep). If he can find his arc from the corners on the road, in front of the Warrior bench, yep. Yep, and yep.
Steven Adams. Steven, Adams. Just waiting for them to unleash Adams. Big lineups. Bigger. If Houston loses its series with Golden State, can we still get a one-off game between Houston and Oklahoma City, with Adams in the starting lineup? Just to see how it goes?
Jae'Sean Tate has a bum ankle and won't play but I can't believe he's only been in the NBA for five seasons ... Jeff Green dunked nine times this year in 32 games. The starting center on my favorite NBA team, Nikola Vucevic, had 10 dunks this season, in 73 games, in almost 1900 more minutes than Jeff Green.
But this isn't about the Bulls. If it were, I'd have Johnny Morris and his Consort-held hair discuss Bulls/Rockets highlights from two months before Mike Miller's birthdate:
Aaron Holiday has 14 games' worth of playoff experience, two starts, Pacers and Hawks and Suns. Who knows how instrumental Aaron Holiday was in whatever virulent strain knocked the Phoenix Suns out of Game 7 in 2022?
Cam Whitmore is probably not a good matchup for this series but I wish he were, we love our Cam Whitmore minutes, however scarce. I'm not saying the Rockets should play him, definitely not, but I do enjoy when the Rockets play Cam Whitmore.
SUN, WED, SAT, MON, WED, FRI, SUN
This is Amen Thompson's series. I'm not in favor of it, I wish it were Jimmy Butler's series, or the Rockets' time will come but not now-series. The series where Curry's thumb starts to not feel like anything, because who feels a thumb? It only feels like something when it hurts.
Instead this will be Amen Thompson's series. Golden State could thwap first, grab Game 1 with its ongoing rhythm, Rockets could sweep from there in four close games, wouldn't blink.
Wouldn't bet on it, because that's actually my guess.
Rockets in five
MY LADY
This band is from Houston but recorded two very good live albums in San Francisco.
All dunk statistics (and less important statistics) as always from Basketball-Reference and sometimes the NBA's website.
Did anyone else have a dream where Skeets and Tom Joyner were at the same Status Quo concert or was that just me?
Thanks for reading, even that last part.
Previously: Indiana & Milwaukee, New York & Detroit
Previously: Minnesota & Los Angeles, Denver & Los Angeles
