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Finals preview: Toronto vs. Golden State

Kelly Dwyer

30 May 2019 — 7 min read

Toronto vs. Golden State

West’s top seed vs. East’s second seed.

Toronto won season series 2-0, also owns homecourt advantage (2-2-1-1-1).

THU, SUN, WED, FRI, MON, THU, SUN

(Toronto in seven.)

RAPTORS STARTERS

C: Marc Gasol — Nice numbers (23 points, 16 rebounds in 55 minutes) and good dimes (nice heaves, 15 in total) in two games against the Warriors this year, but they also ran him out in a coupla quarters.
F: Pascal Siakam — Could absolutely turn the Finals if he can handle all the storm and stress, this series’ dynamic could shift significantly depending on how Pascal views his ongoing relationship with Draymond Green.
F: Kawhi Leonard — Can drag the Raptors to the championship if he keeps up the incredible two-point shooting and his interest in ending the other team’s possession (44 defensive rebounds in six games against Milwaukee).
SG: Danny Green — Toronto needs his minutes and movement badly on both ends and Golden State is set to treat Green like he’s in silver and black. The increased scrutiny could do something for Danny (31 percent from long range in the postseason).
PG: Kyle Lowry — Has found his bowling ball rhythm from long range, he doesn’t need to splay himself in order to get strong rotation on faraway looks. This has gots to be key in the face of some of GSW’s larger defenders

TORONTO ROTATION

The legs will fail Fred VanVleet at one point yet he’ll handle his inevitable 1-of-8 far different in these Finals, he’s a different person now … OG Anunoby could return in this round, seriously, any complication the Raptors can throw Golden State’s well will help … Norman Powell sops minutes, if he can can find some second quarter freedom and 40 percent from long range, sure, more beer for us.

Serge Ibaka will be taxed in this round, he’ll have to think on his feet and consider the term. The only way Ibaka returns a positive series is if this Finals go the full boat, Serge owns the intelligence and drive to keep himself in these matchups.

As if the Raptors have any choice in the matter. Ibaka has to suffer through the most embarrassing parts of his position’s profession. It’s been years since Serge or Gasol worked against Golden State in the playoffs, they haven’t gotten any better at this. Only slower.

And smarter. Much smarter. Ibaka’s seen his career in crisis mode several times, Gasol’s only stared down the end of his position since before Golden State began posing pivotmen in outmoded fashions.

The center position isn’t an anachronism, it still most certainly retains its position as the fulcrum and Draymond Green’s post-ups evince this routinely.

Gasol and Ibaka are gonna have to find their own trip, outlining the stuff they can do best within this sort of terrain.

I kinda feel like trusting them.

Toronto can win if it can stay on its feet for two and a half weeks.

Save for Game 5’s vacation inside Milwaukee, the Raptors have basically been at home since the short jet back to Toronto late on May 17.

This is gonna stuck through Sunday and it’s an outstanding advantage. Clubs can’t help but feel as if every antagonist has to walk past each and every damn one of your flags on the way toward what counts.

The Raptors aren’t riding a wave, there is outsized momentum here yet nothing that cannot sustain. Toronto is a championship-level outfit, even with the bench’s diminished state, this group has all it needs to keep afloat.

Pay attention to this strain of growth. The Raptors can’t do infinity like the Warriors, but Toronto hasn’t yet had its face pressed to the inside of the canopy. The home team still has learning to do, and it will have the space enough to create.

Everything’s lined up for Toronto, but the beats will have to remain consistent in order to outlast the champs.

VINCE CARTER DUNKS ON THE WARRIORS

Early in the 2001 season, which is why Charles Barkley still had room to call Troy Murphy a “young Tom Chambers.”

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WARRIORS STARTERS

C: Jordan Bell — is several feet shorter than Marc Gasol, but they started the season in about the same shape.
PF: Draymond Green — could make the Raptors cry.
F: Andre Iguodala — The pre-Finals time off has to make an impact for Dre, he’ll be left haggard even in games that Durant shows up for.
SG: Klay Thompson — With quick posts and kinda-covered 25-footers, Thompson has to act as the release that puts Golden State on the board even after a busted possession.
PG: Stephen Curry — Toronto should worry, deeply, about what Curry can do defensively away from Kawhi’s style of “action.”

GOLDEN STATE ROTATION

I’d start Kevon Looney at center but the Warriors don’t want to run the risk of a confused first few minutes in each half, and that’s understandable. Promotions usually don’t scan well in the first game of an NBA championship round, but Kevon has proven himself enterprising in this postseason … Shaun Livingston is a damned hero but he’ll find room to slink tougher to swing by against Toronto.

DeMarcus Cousins could return later in the series, all the Warriors want is a big man that can walk and chew gum at the same time, Golden State doesn’t need Boogie to dribble, please … Jonas Jerebko has got to find some new half-court tricks against a lengthy Raptors team that is familiar with each of his moves.

The bounding Quinn Cook has provided plenty of positive minutes since hopping back into action in Texas during Game 6 of the Rocket series, any bit of capability helps against a Toronto team that can’t afford to see any more good players on the other side … Andrew fucking Bogut is still fucking here.

Alfonzo McKinnie is a delightful player who can save energy for defense and other anachronistic efforts (offensive rebounds, working the mercury sphygmomanometer) … Jacob Evans is a rookie that saw action in Game 4 of the Western finals because Steve Kerr wanted to really get to Terry Stotts on Steve’s way outta town.

Kevin Durant sprained his calf on May 8 and he’s traveled with the team to Toronto. There’s a chance the Warriors could break the glass on Durant for Game 3 of the Finals if the outfit slips down 0-2, perhaps for Game 4 (on June 7) if the back-and-forth remains even.

Anything beyond that would be guessing at spits that Golden State hasn’t hocked yet.

Do we truly believe the relationship between the Warriors and Durant is so mangled that he’d sit out a Game 7 with the title on the line? Or a Game 6 at home with a chance to chance to either clinch a championship, or rescue a season? Durant and the Warriors came to an understanding with each other long before this calf strain.

If the Warriors are stuck inside a competitive series with Toronto by next Thursday, it will be because the Raptors outplayed Golden State. The champs will start slowly after nine days off, but in the case of a competitive series the fault of the flip-ups will be all Toronto’s.

In this dream the Warrior miscues wouldn’t mount out of what Zach Lowe wonderfully called “arrogant, casual gaffes,” rather a product of what the Raptors have done to what used to be your 47 feet.

This is what Durant is paid to upend. He’s supposed to guarantee a championship.

Golden State can win if Draymond Green’s dynamism puts Toronto over a barrel.

Durant won’t matter if Green’s pressing and positionless pluck handcuffs the Raptor defense. If Draymond is able to earn productive possessions with his live dribble then the Raps will have had it, and soon — quick series.

Golden State should look to push off every make or miss. Draymond’s the 18-wheeler that can see over the length of the highway, he’s got the muscle (and nerve) to ease the action onto the shoulder and deliver the haul ahead of time — again, could be a quick series.

If it helps to imagine Draymond Green as Jerry Reed, well hell.

If Green can trouble Pascal Siakam without fouling, hoo-boy. Short time to get there.

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STUFF THAT MADE SENSE AT THE TIME

“The Warriors may never be better than the sum of all these parts but, holy shit, that doesn’t seem to matter on most nights.

“Working without Draymond Green and Steph Curry, some Warriors still managed to make an overtime out of this in Toronto.

“The Raptors are a championship contender, this team is that good, that great, and sadly for the rest of the East they’ll only improve. Golden State still had enough one-on-you to take things to OT.” — Nov. 30.

“The Raps went big on Stephen Curry with [Danny] Green’s emerging ass (five two-pointers!), the starting Fred VanVleet hit a pair of long-rangers and didn’t turn the ball over, Pascal Siakam played sensibly (if not overwhelmingly), Serge Ibaka worked up beautiful basketball on both ends of the court, the man really is a basketball dream.

“Kyle Lowry was your fork in the garbage disposal, swirling around and causing sparks and reminding us of the sort of struggle that the Raptors have always been about. It has always been a climb, in Toronto, with plenty of hiking left.

“Good thing Lowry has whatever’s in that backpack of his, he’s had it since university, 23 points and 12 assists and the capacity of competition that exists within him. The punctual imagery he develops on his way toward glaring right into your sternum.

He’s a leader. A lot of teams have them, but only one team has Kyle Lowry.” — Dec. 13.